The Ghana Cedi is expected to end 2026 at GH¢12.20 to the US dollar, with Databank Research revising its earlier forecast by 65 basis points on expectations of stronger foreign exchange inflows and an improved external position.
In its half-year economic outlook, the research arm of Databank Group said increased gold mobilisation, sustained repatriation of export proceeds and stronger reserve accumulation would provide support for the local currency in the months ahead.
It identified the 30 percent Gold Off-Take Mandate under the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) as an important driver of foreign exchange supply, particularly following an increase in GoldBod’s budget allocation from GH¢4.5 billion to GH¢5 billion.
According to Databank, the increased allocation should support gold mobilisation and contribute to higher reserve accumulation.
“Combined with sustained repatriation of export proceeds, these factors are likely to strengthen the BoG’s forex buffers,” the report stated.
The research firm, however, said the cedi’s stability would depend on how effectively reserve accumulation is balanced with timely foreign exchange interventions by the Bank of Ghana (BoG).
US$1.2bn–US$1.5bn intervention
With most major external obligations for 2026 already settled, Databank expects the central bank to maintain market support during the September-to-November period, when seasonal demand for foreign exchange typically rises.
It estimates that BoG interventions during the period could range between US$1.2 billion and US$1.5 billion.
“This should help smooth seasonal FX pressures while preserving a broadly stable exchange rate path that balances export and import competitiveness,” Databank said.
The forecast reflects an improved external position, with the cedi expected to benefit from stronger foreign exchange supply at a time when the central bank has greater room to manage seasonal demand pressures.
Oil exports to add support
Databank also expects Ghana’s Balance of Payments (BoP) position to remain favourable, supported by sustained current account surpluses and resilient gold export earnings.
It said a recovery in crude oil production could provide an additional boost to export receipts, increasing foreign exchange inflows and creating further room for reserve accumulation.
“At a conservative baseline of US$75 per barrel, we estimate that sustained oil production momentum will generate US$340 million to US$410 million in cumulative gross export proceeds over the final six months of 2026,” the report said.
The additional oil receipts, Databank noted, would strengthen Ghana’s medium-term BoP position and support the accumulation of central bank reserves.
It expects these developments to help keep reserves above five months of import cover, providing an additional buffer against external shocks and periods of heightened foreign exchange demand.
The outlook suggests that gold and oil export earnings, together with repatriated export proceeds and targeted central bank intervention, will be key to the cedi’s performance through the remainder of 2026.
Databank said the ultimate direction of the currency would depend on the pace at which reserves are accumulated relative to foreign exchange demand, particularly during the final quarter of the year.
Source: businesspostonline
