Ghanaian institutions holding restructured Eurobonds could face further mark-to-market losses as rising US Treasury yields push down the prices of the country’s external sovereign securities.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury climbed to about 5.01 percent on September 14, 2026, its highest level since October 2023, increasing the return available to investors from a relatively low-risk dollar asset.
The development has created a tougher environment for Ghana’s Eurobond holders, particularly institutions required to value their investment portfolios at prevailing market prices.
Although there are no definitive registry figures showing the proportion of Ghana’s Eurobonds held locally, Ghanaian commercial banks, pension funds, insurance companies, fund managers and high-net-worth individuals are understood to hold portions of the restructured securities.
When global benchmark yields rise, investors generally demand higher yields from riskier sovereign bonds such as Ghana’s.
Because bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, Ghana’s Eurobond prices must fall if yields are to rise sufficiently to compensate investors for the additional risk.
For an existing investor, this translates into a reduction in the market value of the holding.
For instance, if an institution bought a Ghana Eurobond for US$90 and its market price subsequently declined to US$85, the investor would record a US$5 reduction in market value.
Importantly, however, such a decline does not automatically increase the government’s contractual debt-service obligations on the bond.
The government continues to pay interest and principal according to the terms of the restructured security.
Longer bonds more vulnerable
The impact of rising global yields is particularly significant for longer-dated Ghanaian bonds because their prices are more sensitive to changes in interest rates.
Recent market movements demonstrate this pattern.
Between September 9 and September 11, the indicative price of Ghana’s 2037 bond declined by about 1.2 percent, compared with less than 0.5 percent for the 2029 and 2030 securities.
During the same period, yields on the 2029, 2030, 2035 and 2037 bonds increased to 5.560 percent, 3.629 percent, 6.143 percent and 7.397 percent, respectively.
The repricing comes after a substantial recovery in Ghana’s external debt market following the completion of the 2024 restructuring.
The restructuring covered about US$13 billion in Eurobonds and resulted in new securities, mainly maturing in 2029 and 2035, with some creditors opting for 2037 bonds.
Investor confidence improved considerably during 2025, with the weighted-average secondary-market price increasing by 19.1 percent, while weighted-average yields fell by 338 basis points.
Ghana has also strengthened its debt-service position by settling US$700 million of Eurobond obligations ahead of schedule in July.
The IMF has subsequently assessed the country’s debt-distress risk as moderate, reflecting stronger fiscal performance, exchange-rate stability, economic growth and progress with restructuring.
No return to debt crisis
The latest bond-price declines therefore do not necessarily signal a return to Ghana’s 2022–23 debt crisis.
Instead, they reflect the interaction between improved Ghana-specific fundamentals and a less favourable global investment environment.
The government has also ruled out returning to the international capital market in 2026, reducing immediate concerns about additional external borrowing.
For local institutional investors, however, the rise in US Treasury yields remains significant because it could reduce the market value of existing Eurobond holdings and affect reported portfolio returns.
The challenge will be to balance the improved creditworthiness of Ghana with the higher returns now available from US government securities.
As global yields remain elevated, Ghanaian bonds will need to maintain sufficient spreads over US Treasuries to remain attractive to international and domestic investors.
By: Toma Imirhe / businesspostonline
