Ghana’s restructured Eurobonds are facing renewed pressure as the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury climbs above 5 percent, narrowing the premium investors earn for holding Ghanaian sovereign debt.
The US Treasury yield reached approximately 5.01 percent on September 14, 2026, its highest level since October 2023, as investors responded to renewed inflation concerns, higher oil prices, expectations of tighter US monetary policy and growing concerns about the US fiscal position.
The development has important implications for Ghana’s external debt market because investors now have the opportunity to earn around 5 percent from a dollar-denominated US government security regarded as virtually risk-free.
This means Ghana’s Eurobonds must offer a sufficiently attractive spread over US Treasury yields to compensate investors for taking on sovereign and emerging-market risks.
Recent secondary-market movements suggest that this adjustment is already underway.
On September 9, Ghana’s 2029 bond was yielding 5.386 percent, while the 2030, 2035 and 2037 bonds were yielding 3.461 percent, 6.025 percent and 7.255 percent, respectively.
By September 11, yields had risen to 5.560 percent for the 2029 bond, 3.629 percent for the 2030, 6.143 percent for the 2035 and 7.397 percent for the 2037.
As bond yields rose, prices declined. The 2029 bond fell to about US$98.56, while the 2030, 2035 and 2037 bonds declined to approximately US$88.81, US$92.31 and US$58.00, respectively.
The adjustment illustrates the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields: when investors demand higher returns, prices must fall until the yield becomes sufficiently attractive.
Spreads under pressure
With the US 10-year Treasury at about 5.01 percent, Ghana’s 2029 bond offers only about 55 basis points of additional yield.
The 2035 bond provides approximately 113 basis points, while the 2037 bond offers around 239 basis points.
The narrower spreads mean Ghanaian securities are becoming less compelling to investors who can allocate funds to US Treasuries without taking comparable sovereign risk.
The situation is markedly different from the period immediately following Ghana’s external debt restructuring, when the country’s bonds traded at deep discounts and offered significantly higher yields.
The restructuring, completed in October 2024, covered about US$13 billion of Eurobonds.
By end-2025, investor sentiment had improved substantially. Ghana’s Ministry of Finance reported that outstanding Eurobonds had declined to US$8.38 billion, from US$9.24 billion a year earlier, while the weighted-average secondary-market price rose by 19.1 percent.
Weighted-average yields also declined by 338 basis points during 2025.
The latest rise in US Treasury yields could therefore limit further price gains and encourage investors to demand greater compensation for remaining exposed to Ghana.
However, the repricing does not necessarily point to renewed concerns over Ghana’s ability to service its debt.
The country’s debt restructuring has been completed, debt-service payments have resumed and the IMF has classified Ghana’s debt-distress risk as moderate, compared with the previous high-risk assessment.
The latest pressure is therefore largely a consequence of changing global interest-rate conditions and tighter competition for international investment capital.
For Ghana, maintaining strong fiscal performance and macroeconomic stability will be crucial to preventing global yield increases from translating into a more pronounced rise in its sovereign borrowing costs.
By: Toma Imirhe / businesspostonline
