Fitch Solutions has slightly lowered Ghana’s economic growth forecast for 2026, pointing to the effects of the US-Iran conflict and rising global prices.
In its April 2026 Sub-Saharan Africa Monthly Outlook, the firm revised its projection from 5.9 percent to 5.5 percent, noting that stronger-than-expected inflation is likely to weigh on consumer spending. The new estimate is also below the 6.0 percent growth recorded in 2025.
According to the report, higher global fuel prices are expected to be the main channel through which external pressures affect Ghana’s economy. Recent increases in petrol and diesel prices—reportedly between 10 percent and 15 percent in March 2026—are already contributing to rising costs.
Fitch Solutions expects inflation to climb to about 9 percent year-on-year by the end of 2026, with price pressures likely to intensify in the near term. However, it noted that inflation should still remain lower than levels seen in recent years, particularly during the 2022–2023 energy crisis linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Despite the downward revision, the firm подчеркed that Ghana’s growth outlook remains relatively strong compared to that period. It also highlighted the country’s solid performance in 2025, when the economy expanded by 6.0 percent, supported largely by the services sector and non-oil activities.
Non-oil GDP growth reached 7.5 percent in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a broad-based recovery across the economy.
Overall, while external shocks are expected to slightly moderate growth, Ghana’s economy is still projected to remain resilient.
Source: businesspostonline
