Cedi under seasonal pressure as Q1 demand intensifies

by Business Post

The Ghana cedi ended the fortnight with a mixed performance, as it came under seasonal pressures.

In the interbank market, the cedi depreciated by 0.91 percent to the US dollar to close at a midrate of GH¢10.98. The pound and euro also weakened, shedding 1.31 percent and 1.08 percent to settle at GH¢14.94 and GH¢12.97, respectively.

Conversely, in the retail market, the cedi strengthened 1.71 percent, firming from GH¢11.90 to GH¢11.70, while the pound and euro gained modestly, rising 0.32 percent and 0.73 percent to close at GH¢15.75 and GH¢13.65, respectively.

“We believe the cedi will face mild depreciation pressure over the next fortnight, driven by heightened seasonal foreign exchange demand as importers actively restock inventories amid typical quarter one dynamics”, said Databank Research.

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The 4.0 percent depreciation of the cedi to the dollar reflected seasonality.

“We expect sustained importer demand for US dollar to continue exerting pressure on the currency in the near term. Against this backdrop, our forecast anticipates a GH¢10.95–GH¢11.10 trading range [interbank market] against the US dollar over the next two weeks, with healthy international reserves and elevated gold prices providing the Bank of Ghana sufficient capacity for targeted interventions to limit sharp depreciation”, Databank Research added.

Meanwhile, the cedi began this week, going for GH¢11.80 to one American greenback at the forex bureaus.

Its year-to-date gain stood at 4.0 percent to the US dollar.

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